markets · Markets / Global / Labor / Yields
US Sep payrolls +29k, jobless 4.2%; S&P 7,722; CMT 10Y 5.28%
BLS September jobs: nonfarm payrolls +29,000, unemployment 4.2% from 4.1%, hourly pay $37.81 (+3.0% y/y). US stocks rallied Friday anyway — S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72 — while Treasury CMT 10Y rose to 5.28%. India reopens Mon 5 Oct after the Gandhi Jayanti break, with RBI's MPC meeting from today.
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US jobs — official data (BLS Employment Situation, September 2026, released Fri 2 Oct, 8:30 AM ET):
| Measure | September | August |
|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm payrolls (SA level) | 159,044,000 | 159,015,000 |
| Monthly change | +29,000 | +133,000 (current vintage) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Average hourly earnings, private | $37.81 | $37.76 |
| Hourly earnings change | +0.1% m/m · +3.0% y/y | — |
US cash Friday (2 Oct): S&P 500 7,722.72 (+0.73% / +56.27) · Dow 51,176.96 (+0.49% / +250.40) · Nasdaq Composite 27,190.86 (+1.19% / +319.26) · Russell 2000 2,832.90 (+0.94%).
Yields — official close (Treasury CMT, 2 Oct): 2Y 4.83% (+5 bp) · 10Y 5.28% (+4 bp) · 30Y 5.63% (+2 bp) versus Thursday's 4.78% / 5.24% / 5.61%.
Oil (indicative — front-month feed, not a settlement price): WTI ~$91.11 Fri (−1.9% vs Thu's $92.87 settle); Brent ~$102.25. Monday early Asia colour: WTI ~$90.2, Brent ~$101.7.
Takeaway: Hiring nearly stalled (+29k) and joblessness ticked up to 4.2%, but stocks read it as rate relief and rallied. The bond market didn't fully agree — the 10Y rose back to 5.28%. India's first session since Thursday opens into that mix, plus RBI's policy meeting.
Analysis
A weak jobs number, a strong stock day
September's +29,000 extends a choppy summer on today's vintage: June +31,000, July −10,000, August +133,000. Payroll levels are up about +452,000 since January's 158,592,000. The unemployment rate rose a tenth to 4.2%. Wage growth cooled to +0.1% on the month ($37.76 → $37.81), keeping the year-on-year pace at about 3.0%.
Equities still finished Friday strong. Our read: slower hiring plus softer wages lowers the bar for Fed rate relief, and equities priced that first. Tech led — Nasdaq +1.19% — and small caps (Russell +0.94%) beat the Dow.
Why the 10Y went the other way
Official Treasury Daily Yield Curve (CMT) rows:
| Tenor | CMT 2 Oct | CMT 1 Oct | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 4.83% | 4.78% | +5 bp |
| 10Y | 5.28% | 5.24% | +4 bp |
| 30Y | 5.63% | 5.61% | +2 bp |
Yields rising on a soft jobs print is the part to watch. It means the bond market is not pricing a quick, easy cut path — inflation and supply still matter. Thursday's dip to 5.24% (Thursday’s story) was mostly given back.
What it means for India's Monday reopen
- Three-day gap: NSE/BSE last traded Thu 1 Oct (Nifty ~22,421.95, Sensex ~71,909.70 — indicative; confirm against exchange closing data). Global risk improved over the break; US rates did not ease.
- RBI MPC: meets 5–7 Oct, repo 5.25%, decision Wed 7 Oct (full story). A 5.28% US 10Y keeps the rupee-and-rates backdrop tight.
- Rupee (indicative): USD/INR feed ~96.3 early Monday — no fresh RBI/FBIL reference rate yet today.
- IPO tape: AceVector (Snapdeal parent) lists today on BSE, issue price ₹32 (full story).
What to watch next (sourced clocks only)
- India cash open 9:15 IST and the AceVector special pre-open on BSE
- RBI MPC decision Wed 7 Oct
- CMT 10Y above or below 5.28% this week
- Next BLS jobs report: 6 Nov 2026
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — The Employment Situation, September 2026 (released 2 Oct 2026, 8:30 AM ET): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm — series CES0000000001 (payrolls), LNS14000000 (unemployment rate), CES0500000003 (average hourly earnings), as published via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), updated 2 Oct 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS · https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE · https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
- U.S. Department of the Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (2 Oct 2026): 2Y 4.83%, 10Y 5.28%, 30Y 5.63% — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- US index closes (2 Oct 2026): S&P 500 7,722.72 · Dow Jones Industrial Average 51,176.96 · Nasdaq Composite 27,190.86 · Russell 2000 2,832.90
- Indicative only: WTI/Brent front-month, USD/INR and Thursday Nifty/Sensex levels from market data feeds — not settlement or reference prints
- Capital Chronicle: rbi-mpc-october-2026-meeting-begins-repo-525-october-5 · acevector-snapdeal-ipo-listing-day-october-5 · us-thursday-claims-yields-recede-india-holiday-october-2
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