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RBI MPC meets Oct 5–7: repo at 5.25%, decision Wednesday — what the August resolution set up
RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee starts its October 5–7 meeting today. Repo 5.25%, SDF 5.00%, MSF 5.50%, neutral stance. August’s resolution projected CPI peaking in Q3 at 5.9% and said rates may need ‘recalibration’ as underlying inflation normalises. Decision due Wed 7 Oct.
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Meeting week (Mon 5 Oct 2026 IST): The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee begins its October 5, 6 and 7 meeting today, per RBI’s published 2026-27 MPC calendar. The decision lands Wednesday 7 Oct. Governor Sanjay Malhotra chairs.
Where rates stand going in — RBI MPC resolution, 5 August 2026:
| Rate / setting | Level |
|---|---|
| Policy repo rate (LAF) | 5.25% |
| Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) | 5.00% |
| Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) / Bank Rate | 5.50% |
| Stance | Neutral |
| August vote | Unanimous hold |
What August projected:
| Projection (Aug resolution) | |
|---|---|
| CPI inflation FY27 | 5.0% — Q2 4.7% · Q3 5.9% · Q4 5.5% |
| CPI Q1 FY28 | 5.3% |
| Core inflation FY27 | 4.3% |
| Real GDP FY27 | 6.7% — Q1 7.0% · Q2 6.4% · Q3 6.5% · Q4 6.8% |
The line markets will re-read: August said policy action needs “greater clarity” on the inflation path, and that any action “would also have to consider the need for recalibration of policy rates” as underlying inflation normalises from benign levels. That wording is why this week is being framed as hold versus first hike — the last repo increase came in February 2023.
Takeaway: Nothing is decided until Wednesday. For borrowers, a repo move feeds into repo-linked home-loan EMIs; for savers, into deposit rates over time. Capital Chronicle will file the decision from RBI’s statement on 7 Oct.
Analysis
Why it matters today
Indian equities reopen after a three-day pause on the same day the MPC sits down. Rate-sensitive pockets — banks, NBFCs, housing finance, real estate, autos — tend to trade the policy week. The RBI calendar puts the meeting on 5–7 Oct; the August resolution itself flagged it as the next date.
What August actually said
- Inflation: CPI rose to 4.4% in June 2026 after 16 consecutive months below target, driven by food and fuel. RBI expected headline inflation to peak in Q3 FY27 before easing.
- Core: steady at 3.9% in May–June; excluding precious metals, 2.3–2.5%.
- Global: the resolution cited resumed conflict in West Asia, volatile oil, a stronger US dollar, and several central banks raising rates.
- Growth: FY27 GDP projected at 6.7%, “albeit resilient, expected to be lower.”
- Risks: uneven south-west monsoon amid El Niño, energy prices, and global trade policy.
What to watch Wednesday
- Repo decision and vote split
- Whether the stance moves off neutral
- Revised CPI and GDP projections for FY27
- Any liquidity steps alongside the rate call
Not investment advice. No politics.
Sources
- RBI press release, “Meeting Schedule of the Monetary Policy Committee for 2026-2027” (23 Mar 2026) — October 5, 6 and 7, 2026 — https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422
- RBI, “Monetary Policy Statement, 2026-27 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee August 3 to 5, 2026” (5 Aug 2026) — repo 5.25%, SDF 5.00%, MSF/Bank Rate 5.50%, neutral stance, CPI/GDP projections, next meeting 5–7 Oct — https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63287
- RBI historical policy rate record — last repo increase February 2023
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Not personalized financial advice. Corrections: corrections@capitalchronicle.news